After weeks of pressure caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict, the gold market finally changed direction following new comments from President Donald Trump. While many investors expected the war to push gold prices sharply higher, the opposite happened. Since the conflict began in late February, gold prices have fallen nearly 14%. The main reasons behind the decline were a stronger U.S. dollar, rising energy prices, and higher inflation expectations, all of which led the Federal Reserve to pause its planned interest rate cuts and reduced gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
However, the situation shifted on May 20 when Trump stated that the United States and Iran are in the “final stages” of negotiations. That single comment immediately moved the markets. Gold prices jumped as much as 1.6% during the session, climbing back near $4,540 per ounce. At the same time, the U.S. dollar weakened, Treasury yields declined, and oil prices dropped — a combination that traditionally supports a rally in gold.
Trump also expressed hope that a deal could be reached and that the conflict would not escalate further. His remarks increased market optimism that the crisis may end through diplomacy rather than additional military action. Analysts believe the market reaction on May 20 was the clearest sign yet of a “peace trade” returning to global markets since the war began, potentially bringing investors back into gold once again.
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