The gold market experienced one of its most volatile weeks recently, ultimately closing with notable strength. This performance has boosted optimism among both Wall Street analysts and retail investors about a continued upward trend.
At the start of the week, gold prices came under pressure, dropping to the $4,500 range. This decline occurred despite rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. However, instead of reacting as a safe-haven asset, the market focused more on inflationary pressures driven by rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar.
By midweek, the narrative shifted. Easing concerns over further escalation in geopolitical tensions, combined with falling bond yields and a weaker dollar, created favorable conditions for gold. As a result, the precious metal rebounded strongly, breaking above the $4,700 level and regaining bullish momentum.
On Thursday, gold extended its gains and stabilized near $4,740. However, following the release of U.S. employment data on Friday—which indicated a relatively strong economy—the market entered a consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating around the $4,700 mark.
According to the latest weekly survey, approximately 64% of Wall Street analysts and nearly 70% of retail investors expect gold prices to rise in the coming week, while only a small minority hold a bearish outlook.
Some analysts point to declining oil prices and reduced inflationary pressure as key supportive factors for gold. Additionally, significant buying by China’s central bank during recent price dips signals strong demand at lower levels. In this context, the $4,850 level is being considered a short-term target.
However, not all perspectives are bullish. Some experts warn that as prices approach the 50-day moving average, short-term selling pressure could emerge. Still, as long as gold remains above the $4,530 support level, the broader trend is considered bullish.
Market dynamics in equities also play a crucial role. Analysts note that as long as capital continues flowing into stock markets, gold demand may remain limited. However, any correction in equities could trigger renewed safe-haven demand for gold.
Looking ahead, key economic data releases—including CPI, PPI, and retail sales—are expected to influence market direction. Additionally, a potential vote on the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair could introduce further volatility.
Overall, after a brief correction, gold is showing clear signs of regaining strength. If macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions remain supportive, some analysts believe prices above $5,000 could be within reach in the coming months.
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