Escalating Pressure on Iran’s Oil Exports Amid Geneva Talks

According to Axios, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu agreed in their recent meeting to intensify economic pressure on Iran, particularly by targeting Iran’s oil sales to China, which account for more than 80% of the country’s oil exports. The United States is pursuing this “maximum pressure” campaign alongside nuclear negotiations and a strengthened military presence in the region, keeping tougher options on the table should diplomacy fail.

An executive order signed by Trump allows the U.S. to impose tariffs of up to 25% on countries that trade with Iran. However, pressuring China over its purchases of Iranian oil could further complicate already tense U.S.–China relations, especially as Washington seeks to safeguard critical rare-earth supply chains and maintain upcoming diplomatic engagements. At the same time, markets remain more concerned about potential regional disruptions, particularly if Iran were to interfere with broader oil flows.

Behind the scenes, while Trump and Netanyahu agree on the ultimate goal of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, they differ on how to achieve it. Netanyahu is skeptical that a viable deal with Iran is possible, whereas Trump believes negotiations are still worth testing. A second round of talks is scheduled in Geneva with the participation of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as the U.S. awaits Iran’s response and stresses that it will only accept a “real and satisfactory” agreement.