Recent U.S. inflation data released this week showed a notable divergence compared to the previous month, signaling a clear increase in inflationary pressures within the economy. At the same time, given the significant rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI)—often considered a leading indicator of inflation—it is reasonable to expect that inflationary trends may persist in the coming months.
Under these conditions, the outlook for global gold prices can still be considered bullish, provided that geopolitical tensions—especially in the Middle East—remain at least at current levels and no meaningful reduction in political or economic risks occurs.
From a technical perspective, gold has entered a ranging (sideways) phase following a strong bullish move. The key support level is located around $4,650, while the major resistance stands near $4,765. In the latest bearish move, price reacted to the main support, swept liquidity in that zone, and is now attempting to move back toward the top of the range.
On the 15-minute timeframe, a clear change of character (market structure shift) can be observed in the most recent downtrend, which developed from the local high to the low. Based on this, two main scenarios can be considered for the next price movement:
Scenario 1:
Price may form another pullback toward the $4,650 level following the recent structure shift. If this support holds, a renewed bullish move is expected, targeting $4,710 and then $4,770.
Scenario 2:
A sustained consolidation above the $4,710 level could signal strengthening bullish momentum. In this case, the probability of a move toward $4,770 increases, with the next potential target around $4,820.
Overall, as long as key support levels remain intact and fundamental conditions continue to support gold, the ultimate upside target in both scenarios could extend toward the $4,960 level.
Note: This analysis is for market review purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a buy/sell signal. Proper risk management, stop-loss placement, and real-time market evaluation are essential before making any trading decisions.
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