Last week, news of a ceasefire following a period of tension and threats led to a moderation in oil prices, and as a result, part of the liquidity shifted from the energy market toward gold. However, negotiations between Iran and the United States have not reached a clear outcome, while the US is actively strengthening its presence in the region. As a result, the possibility of continued conflicts—with greater intensity and even entry into new phases—cannot be ruled out.
From a technical analysis perspective, the mid-term price structure still shows a bullish bias. At the same time, the $4,100 level, which lies within a monthly demand zone, can act as a strong support and play a key role in forming a major upward move. Nevertheless, price behavior should be monitored and updated on a weekly basis in response to new developments.
🔖 For this week, two scenarios are considered:
1️⃣ Scenario One: There is a possibility of a positive gap at the beginning of the week, followed by continued growth toward the $5,200 level.
2️⃣ Scenario Two: The market may remain uncertain until the next phase of the conflict becomes clearer. In this case, the $4,400 level can be considered as a price floor.
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